EUR/USD Outlook: Bears Are Consolidating Above Key Support After Nearly 3% Drop In March

Bears are taking a breather above new nearly five months low (1.1704) and key Fibo support at 1.1694 (38.2% of 1.0635/1.2349), with consolidation on overextended daily studies likely to precede fresh weakness.

The Euro fell almost 3% in March (the biggest monthly loss since May 2018) and generated strong bearish signals on close below falling 100MMA (1.1817).

The last break below the indicator occurred in July 2014 and resulted in strong bearish acceleration through second half of 2014 / early 2015 (the pair was down around 20%) warning of similar scenario in coming months.

Strong 3-month fall from 2021 high (1.2349) could extend towards 1.15/1.12 zone on break of pivotal supports at 1.1694 (Fibo) and 1.1600.1.1590 (higher base / weekly cloud top).

Corrective upticks should be capped at 1.1780/1.18 zone (broken Fibo 76.4% of 1.1602/1.2349 / falling 10DMA) to keep bears intact.

Formation of 20/200DMA death cross adds to negative setup of daily techs as massive monthly bearish candle weighs heavily.

Near-term sentiment was soured by new lockdowns in France, which join existing restrictive measures in the Europe, while negative impact from disappointing German retail sales was offset by solid Manufacturing PMI numbers from Germany and the EU.

Investors focus on US Manufacturing PMI (Mar f/c 61.3 vs 60.8 in Feb) that could further boost the greenback.

Res: 1.1759, 1.1778, 1.1801, 1.1835.
Sup: 1.1704, 1.1694, 1.1622, 1.1602.