AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Falls Further On Disappointing Data, Expectations For Dovish RBA

The Australian dollar was among the top losers of the Asian session on Thursday, as bears extended to new 3 –1/2 month low (0.7531).

Disappointing economic data, released overnight, added to negative sentiment, boosted by expectations that the RBA will remain on hold and maintain dovish tone in its policy meeting on Apr 6.

The central bank’s board is expected to maintain its extraordinary accommodative policy and likely to push back market expectations of rate hike as early as 2022 towards 2024 at the earliest.

The Aussie is expected to remain at the back foot in such circumstances and could be lifted only by signals of a tightening well before RBA’s schedule.

Fresh bears broke below former low of Mar 25 (0.7563) and pressure Dec 22/23 lows at 0.7516 and Fibo 50% of 0.6991/0.8007 ascend), break of which would risk an extension towards 200DMA/Fibo 61.8% (0.7379).

Daily MA’s remain in full bearish setup and negative momentum continues to strengthen, supporting bears.

Broken 100DMA (0.7624) marks strong barrier which is expected cap upticks and maintain bearish bias.

Res: 0.7600, 0.7624, 0.7664, 0.7683
Sup: 0.7531, 0.7516, 0.7499, 0.7461