Crude Oil Price Could Struggle Above $62.50, Gold Slides

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil price corrected higher, but it is now facing hurdles near $ 62.20 and $ 62.50.
  • A crucial bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $ 62.60 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD.
  • Gold price failed above $ 1,730 and started a fresh decline.
  • The US ADP employment could change 550K in March 2021, up from the last 117K.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After trading close to $ 68.00, crude oil price started a downside correction against the US Dollar. The price traded below the $ 62.50 and $ 60.00 support levels before it found support near $ 57.20.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price traded as low as $ 57.20. It even settled below $ 62.50 pivot level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

Recently, there was an upside correction from $ 57.20 and the price climbed above $ 58.50. The price even spiked above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $ 67.94 high to $ 57.20 low.

However, the price struggled to gain momentum above $ 62.20 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). There is also a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near $ 62.60 on the same chart.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $ 67.94 high to $ 57.20 low is also near $ 62.57. A clear break above the $ 62.50 resistance and a follow up move above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) is must for a strong increase towards $ 65.00 and $ 66.00.

If there is no upside break, the price could start a fresh decline below $ 59.50. The main support is now near $ 57.20, below which the price might dive towards the $ 55.00 level.

Looking at EUR/USD, there were additional losses below the 1.1800 support. Besides, GBP/USD is trading in a bearish zone below 1.3850.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • Euro Zone CPI for March 2021 (YoY) (Prelim) – Forecast +1.3%, versus +0.9% previous.
  • Euro Zone Core CPI for March 2021 (YoY) (Prelim) – Forecast +1.2%, versus +1.1% previous.
  • UK GDP for Q4 2020 (QoQ) – Forecast +1.0%, versus +1.0% previous.
  • US ADP Employment Change for March 2021 – Forecast 550K, versus 117K previous.