EURUSD Downside Risks Remain Below Trend Line and 200-MA

EURUSD is consolidating between the curbing 200-period simple moving average (SMA) and the key support zone of 1.2052-1.2080 after the correction from the 32½-month high of 1.2349. The stabilising 50- and 200-period SMAs are promoting the horizontal picture, while the falling 100-period SMA and its recent bearish crossover of the 200-period SMA is nurturing a weakening outlook.

The short-term oscillators are gesturing mixed signals in directional momentum. The MACD is stalling below its zero and trigger lines, while the RSI is hovering in bearish territory, a bit above the 30 level. Yet, the stochastic oscillator is maintaining a positive charge, suggesting some improvement in the price.

To the upside, initial friction may come from the capping 50-period SMA at 1.2132. Pushing over the descending line too, buyers may then face tough resistance from the 100-period SMA at 1.2163 until the 200-period SMA at 1.2186. Extending gains above the ceiling of the sideways move at 1.2186, the pair could propel towards the 1.2222 high. Established positive drive beyond the latter could then turn the bulls focus towards the 1.2284 barrier.

Otherwise, if sellers manage to firmly steer the pair underneath the critical support band of 1.2052-1.2080, this may enhance the decline. The bears could then hit the neighbouring 1.2039 obstacle before targeting the 1.2002-1.2010 support boundary.

Summarizing, EURUSD is currently stuck between the limits of 1.2052 and 1.2186. A break above the restrictive trend line and the 200-period SMA at 1.2186 could breathe some oxygen into the pair, while a dive underneath the 1.2052-1.2080 base may boost negative tendencies.