EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD rebounded to 1.5606 last week but subsequent fall suggests that it’s completed already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.5250 low. Break there will resume the larger down trend from 1.9799. Next target is 1.4733 long term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.5606 will extend the consolidation from 1.5250 with another rise, to 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5832) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.