USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s rise from 102.58 resumed by taking out 109.35 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for long term channel resistance at 110.00. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.40 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.00). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.