EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s correction from 1.2348 resumed last week by breaking through 1.1834. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694 and possibly below. But we’d expect strong support from 1.1062 to contain downside to complete the correction from 1.2348. Though, break of 1.1988 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.