USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s correction extended to 0.9212 last week but recovered since then. As upside momentum isn’t too convincing, initial bias is neutral this week first. In case of another fall, we’d expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8869 to 0.9374 at 0.9181 to bring rise rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.9374 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8756 at 0.9464 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0237 should have completed at 0.8756, on bullish condition in daily and weekly MACD. Current rally from 0.8756 should target 0.9901 resistance first. Break there will target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone in the medium term. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.9044 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.