EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP gyrated lower again last week but it still held above 0.8537 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.8638 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 0.8729 resistance. Firm break there should indicate short term bullish reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8537 will resume the whole pattern from 0.9499, towards 0.8276 key support.

In the bigger picture, we’re seeing the price actions from 0.9499 as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds. However, firm break of 0.8276 support will suggest that rise from 0.6935 has completed and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Break of 0.9799 (2008 high) is expected down the road, as long as 0.8276 support holds.