USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF edged lower to 0.8869 last week but rebounded strongly since then. Though, it’s staying in range below 0.9044 so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.9044 will resume the corrective rise from 0.8756. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9044 from 0.8869 at 0.9127 next. On the downside, break of 0.8869 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8837 and then 0.8756 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. Next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. In any case, break of 0.9295 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.