GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and met 61.8% projection of 123.94 to 142.71 from 133.03 at 144.62. There is no sign of topping yet and initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 147.95 medium term structural resistance. On the downside, however, break of 142.81 support would now indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, rise of 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Break of 147.95 will target 156.59 resistance (2018 high). On the downside, break of 133.03 support is needed to confirm completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of pull back.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) is still seen as a sideway pattern for now. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 143.73) will carry long term bullish implications. But still, firm break of 156.59 resistance is needed to confirm the start of an up trend. Otherwise, overall outlook will be neutral at best first.