USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s rise accelerated to as high as 105.76 last week but formed a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 104.39 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58, for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 1110.31).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.