EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2032; (P) 1.2084; (R1) 1.2113; More…

EUR/USD’s break of 1.2052 support suggests resumption of fall from 1.2348. Intraday bias is back on the downside for channel support (now at 1.1972). Sustained break there would argue that it’s correcting whole up trend from 1.0635 to 1.2348. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 1.2348 to 1.2052 from 1.2188 at 1.1892 first. On the upside, break of 1.2188 resistance, through, will suggest that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.2348 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. We’d be alerted to topping sign around 1.2516/55. But sustained break there will carry long term bullish implications.