EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD surged to as high as 1.6827 last week before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. The development suggests that the cross is already in correction to fall from 1.9799 to 1.6033. Further rise is expected as long as 1.6485 support holds. Break of 1.6827 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.6033 at 1.7472. However, break of 1.6485 support will argue that the rebound might be completed and turn focus to 1.6337 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is now back above 55 day EMA (now at 1.6463) with current rebound. The development argues that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

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In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5816) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.