GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY was bounded in range of 135.38/137.83 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 137.83 will extend the rebound from 133.03. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 142.71 high. On the downside, break of 135.05 will argue that decline from 142.71 is resuming. intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 133.03, and then 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 131.11.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen only as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

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In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 144.20) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).