USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s retreat from 106.10 extended lower last week but it stayed above 104.94 support. Initial bias remains neutral first and another rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 106.10 will resume the rebound from 104.00 for 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

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In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.