GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2893; (P) 1.2947; (R1) 1.2978; More….

GBP/USD is staying in range above 1.2762 despite today’s decline. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3035 resistance holds. Break of 1.2762 will resume the fall from 1.3482 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.3482 at 1.2690. Decisive break there will argue that the rise from 1.1409 might be completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2201. Though, break of 1.3035 will suggest that decline from 1.3482 is merely a corrective move, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3482.

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In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 was strong, it’s limited by both 1.3514 resistance, as well as 55 month EMA (now at 1.3317). The development keeps outlook bearish. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.2719) will add to medium term bearishness for a new low below 1.1409 at a later stage, resuming the down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high).