USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s strong rebound last week suggests that corrective fall from 0.9901 has completed at 0.9502, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9181 to 0.9901 at 0.9456. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 0.9901 high first. On the downside, break of 0.9648 minor support will extend the correction from 0.9901 with another fall. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 0.9456.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Further rise could be seen to retest 1.0237 high. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some time.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.