GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.1409 extended higher last week. Further rise is in favor initially this week with focus on 61.8% retracement of 1.3200 to 1.1409 at 1.2516. Break there will raise the chance of larger reversal and turn focus to 1.3200 resistance first. On the downside, though, break of 1.1933 will suggest completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1409 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) has just resumed. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, long term outlook remains clearly bearish, as it’s held well below long term falling trend line that started back at 2116 (2007 high). Rejection by 55 month EMA also affirmed bearishness. Break of 1.1946 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273.