USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9181 extended to as high as 0.9901 last week. The break of 0.9484 resistance should indicate completion of fall from 1.0237. Initial bias remains is now on the upside this week for 1.0023 resistance. Break will target 1.0237 high. On the downside, below 0.9649 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Further rise could be seen to retest 1.0237 high. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some time.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.