GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s decline accelerated to as low as 1.1409 last week, then formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. But recovery should be limited by 1.2129 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1409 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) has just resumed. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3514 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, long term outlook remains clearly bearish, as it’s held well below long term falling trend line that started back at 2116 (2007 high). Rejection by 55 month EMA also affirmed bearishness. Break of 1.1946 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273.