USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD surged to as high as 1.3995 last week as up trend extended. A temporary top is likely formed after meeting 200% projection projection of 1.2951 to 1.3329 from 1.3202 at 1.3958. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.3329 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Break of 1.3995 will pave the way to 261.8% projection at 1.4192.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2016 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.3941 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.4554, which is close to 1.4689 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3329 resistance turned support holds, in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) is in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.