AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD’s down trend resumed last week and dropped to as low as 0.6123. There is no sign of bottoming yet and initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.7031 to 0.6433 from 0.6684 at 0.6086 next. Some support could be seen fro 0.6008 key support to bring recovery. On the upside, above 0.6325 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But upside should be limited by 0.6433/6884 resistance zone to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Break will target 0.5507 long term fibonacci projection level. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.