USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’ dived to 101.18 initially last week but reversed from there. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 108.00 will target 112.22 resistance next. On the downside, break of 105.91 will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound. However, break of 112.22 will be a strong sign on medium term bullish reversal.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.