USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF dropped to as low as 0.9181 last week but rebounded strongly after hitting 0.9186 key support. At this point, we’re still seeing rebound from 0.9181 as a corrective move. Hence, upside should be limited by 0.9613 support turned resistance. Below 0.9411 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.9181 low. . However, sustained break of 0.9613 will indicate bullish reversal and target 0.9484 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). As long as 0.9613 support turned resistance holds, further fall could be seen to 100% projection 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081. However, firm break of 0.9613 will suggest that 0.9186 key support (2018 low) was defended. USD/CHF should have then started another rising leg in the long term range pattern, towards resistance zone of 1.0237 and 1.0342 (2016 high).

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.