GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s fall from 1.3514resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 1.2270. Such development suggests that whole rise from 1.1958 has completed at 1.3514. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 1.1958 low. On the upside, above 1.2490 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further fall will be expected as long as 1.2725 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.1946 (2016 low) are merely a consolidation pattern, with the third leg completed at 1.3514. Rejection by 55 month EMA also solidify long term bearishness. Focus is back on 1.19146 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend form 2.1161 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3514 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, GBP/USD is held comfortably below down trend line that started back at 2116 (2007 high). Down trend from there should be in favor to resume. Break of 1.1946 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 to 1.1946 from 1.3514 at 1.0273.