USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s decline accelerated to as low as 0.9318 last week, without any sign of bottoming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 161.8% projection of 1.0023 to 0.9613 from 0.9848 at 0.9185, which is close to 0.9186 long term support. On the upside, above 0.9437 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying sideway trading started from 1.0342 (2016 high). Fall from 1.0237 is a leg inside the pattern and rejection by 55 week EMA affirms bearishness. Such decline should target 0.9186 (2018 low) and below. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9613 support turned resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.