GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s late break of 136.93 last week suggests resumption of whole fall from 147.95. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 from 134.71 next. On the upside, above 138.68 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 140.92 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 148.87 resistance argues that rise from 126.54 is probably just third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Medium term outlook is turned neutral first. Break of 126.54 support would resume larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) through 122.75 low.

In the longer term picture, there is no confirmation of long term bullish reversal yet. Focus is now on 156.59 key resistance. As long as it holds, another decline through 122.75 could still be seen. But firm break of 156.69 should at least bring further rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93.