USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF dropped sharply to as low as 0.9609 last week. Break of 0.9613 low suggests resumption of whole decline from 1.0237. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 0.9613 will target 100% projection of 1.0023 to 0.9613 from 0.9848 at 0.9438. On the upside, break of 0.9699 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited well below 0.9848 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying sideway trading started from 1.0342 (2016 high). Fall from 1.0237 is a leg inside the pattern and rejection by 55 week EMA affirms bearishness. Such decline could target 0.9186 (2018 low) and below. In case of another rise, break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, more sideway trading would be seen with risk of another fall.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.