USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD’s rally from 1.2951 resumed last week and surged to as high as 1.3464. Strong break of 1.3327 resistance should confirm completion of triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3664 at 1.2951. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.2951 to 1.3329 from 1.3202 at 1.3436 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.3580 next. On the downside, below 1.3374 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 1.3202 support to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) are seen as a corrective move that has likely completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break 1.3664 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.3941 next. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3202 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) is in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.