GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s corrective fall from 1.3514 extended to as low as 1.2725 last week, and touched 50% retracement of 1.1958 to 1.3514 at 1.2736. Further fall is expected this week as long as 1.3018 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 1.2552. We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current decline from 1.3514 is seen as corrective the rally form 1.1958. Such rally is expected to resume latter to 1.4376 key resistance. Reactions from there would decide whether it’s in consolidation from 1.1946 (2016 low). Or, firm break of 1.4376 will indicate long term bullish reversal. However, sustained break of 1.2582 resistance turned support will dampen these views and bring retest of 1.1958 low instead.

In the longer term picture, it’s still unsure whether long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) has completed at 1.1946 already. Focus is immediately on 55 month EMA (now at 1.3489) and sustained break will be the first serious sign of long term reversal. Further break of trend line resistance (now at 1.3922) will be another signal. Focus would then be turned to 1.4376 key resistance for confirmation.