EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0777 accelerated to as high as 1.1053 last week. Such rise is seen as correcting the fall from 1.1239 to 1.0777. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.1239 to 1.0777 at 1.1063 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0931 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0777 low. However, sustained break of 1.1063 will raise the chance of larger reversal and target 1.1239 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed and prior rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Sustained break of 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813 will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1239 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1512) holds.