EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.6085 extended higher last week and break of 1.6256 support turned resistance suggests that fall from 1.6593 has completed. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for 1.6448 resistance first. Break there will target a test on 1.6593. On the downside, break of 1.6288 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6085 support intact.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD is still struggling in established range of 1.5905/6786. And it’s trying to draw support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.6122) again. For now, larger up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in favor to continue as long as 1.5962 support holds. Break of 1.6786 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5962 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5962 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.