EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8282 last week but recovered ahead of 0.8276 low. A short term bottom could be formed and consolidation form 0.8276 might be in it’s third leg. On the upside, break of 0.8415 will turn bias to the upside for 0.8537/8595 resistance zone. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8276 will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.9324.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.9324 medium term top is still in progress. As long as 0.8595 holds, further fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9324 at 0.7848. Nevertheless, break of 0.8595 will argue that fall from 0.9324 has completed and bring stronger rebound.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.9324 is currently seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). It’s a bit early to judge how deep the decline would extend to and whether 0.6935 would be taken out. We’ll pay attention to the structure of the fall from 0.9324 and corresponding downside momentum to made an assessment later.