USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY accelerated to as high as 112.22 last week as rise form 104.45 extended. With a temporary top formed, initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 110.28 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, firm break of 112.40 resistance will affirm medium term bullishness and target 114.54 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.