EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP’s sharp decline last week argues that fall from 0.9324 is ready to resume. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.8276 low first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9019 to 0.8276 from 0.8595 at 0.8136. On the upside, above 0.8386 support turned resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.9324 medium term top is still in progress. As long as 0.8595 holds, further fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9324 at 0.7848. Nevertheless, break of 0.8786 will argue that fall from 0.9324 has completed and bring stronger rebound.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.9324 is currently seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). It’s a bit early to judge how fall the decline would extend to and whether 0.6935 would be taken out. We’ll pay attention to the structure of the fall from 0.9324 and corresponding downside momentum to made an assessment later.