EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY recovered to 121.15 last week but failed to take out 121.26 minor resistance and reversed. The development so far affirms the bearish view that corrective rise from 115.86 has completed at 122.87 already. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Break of 119.77 will pave the way to retest 115.86 low. Though, break of 121.26 will turn focus back to 122.87 high instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still staying in the falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). Thus, outlook remains bearish. Rise from 115.86 is seen as a corrective rise, which might have completed. Firm break of 115.86 will resume the down trend to 114.84 support next.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.58), this is the preferred case.