EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP engaged in choppy sideway trading above 0.8386 temporary low last week. Current development suggests that corrective pattern from 0.8276 is not completed yet. On the upside, break of 0.8595 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9324 to 0.8276 at 0.8676. On the downside, break of 0.8386 will bring retest of 0.8276 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.9324 medium term top is still in progress. As long as 0.8786 support turned resistance holds, further fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9324 at 0.7848. Nevertheless, break of 0.8786 will argue that fall from 0.9324 has completed and turn focus back to this high.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.9324 is currently seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). It’s a bit early to judge how fall the decline would extend to and whether 0.6935 would be taken out. We’ll pay attention to the structure of the fall from 0.9324 and corresponding downside momentum to made an assessment later.