EUR/AUD’s pull back last week was deeper than expected. But subsequent rebound and break of 1.6423 minor resistance retains near term bullishness. Initial bias is now back on the upside this week for 1.6593 resistance first. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.5962 for 1.6786 high next. On the downside, break of 1.6256 will target 1.6106 support and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew support from 55 week EMA and rebounded strongly again. The development indicates that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5962 support holds.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5962 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5962 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.