AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.6662 last week and initial bias stays on the downside this week. Decisive break of 0.6670 low will confirm down trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.6933 to 0.6678 from 0.6774 at 0.6616 and then 100% projection at 0.6519. On the upside, break of 0.6774 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.