EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1239 resumed last week and reached as low as 1.0942. The strong break of 1.0981 support should confirm the bearish case. That is, corrective rise from 1.0879 has completed with three waves up to 1.1239. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.0879 low. On the upside, above 1.0985 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 1.1095 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective that might have completed after rejection by 55 week EMA. Break of 1.0879 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) for 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.0813). Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339 low. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1239 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1516) holds.