USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.86; (P) 109.21; (R1) 109.86; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 109.26 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 110.28 has completed at 108.30. More importantly, with 107.65 support intact, larger rebound from 104.45 is likely still in progress. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 110.28 first. Break there will target medium term channel resistance at 111.23. On the downside, break of 108.30 will target 107.65 key near term support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.