EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s raise from 1.5962 accelerated to as high as 1.6593 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.6786 high. On the downside, below 1.6469 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained above 1.6294 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, EUR/AUD drew support from 55 week EMA and rebounded strongly again. The development indicates that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5962 support holds.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5962 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.