USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s corrective rebound from 0.9613 should have completed at 0.9766 after rejection from 0.9762 resistance last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9613 first. Break will resume larger fall from 1.0237 to 100% projection of 1.0237 to 0.9659 from 1.0023 at 0.9445. Near term outlook will now remain bearish as long as 0.9766 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral as USD/CHF is staying sideway trading started from 1.0342 (2016 high). Fall from 1.0237 is a leg inside the pattern and could target 0.9186 (2018 low). In case of another rise, break of 1.0237 is needed to indicate up trend resumption. Otherwise, more sideway trading would be seen with risk of another fall.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.