EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY dropped to 119.77 last week but turned into consolidation. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and another recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited below 121.26 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. As noted before, corrective rise from 115.86 should be completed at 122.87, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. On the downside, break of 122.87 will pave the way to retest 115.86 low.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still staying in the falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). Thus, outlook remains bearish. Rise from 115.86 is seen as a corrective rise, which might have completed. Firm break of 115.86 will resume the down trend to 114.84 support next.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.58), this is the preferred case.