EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.0992 but rebounded strongly ahead of 1.0981 support. Break of 1.1085 resistance suggests that fall form 1.1239 is a corrective pull back that has completed with three waves down to 1.0992. More importantly, rise from 1.0879 is probably not over. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for retest 1.1239. On the downside, below 1.1056 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0981 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0879 is seen as a corrective move at this point. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0879 at 1.1519. And, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.1519 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.1915 next.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1537) holds.