EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP’s decline last week suggests that corrective rise from 0.8276 has completed at 0.8595, after rejection by 55 day EMA. As a temporary low is in place at 0.8386, initial bias is neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.8487 minor resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8386 will target a test on 0.8276 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.8487 would turn bias to the upside for 0.8595 to extend the corrective rise form 0.8276.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.9324 medium term top is till in progress. As long as 0.8786 support turned resistance holds, further fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9324 at 0.7848. Nevertheless, break of 0.8786 will argue that fall from 0.9324 has completed and turn focus back to this high.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.9324 is currently seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). It’s a bit early to judge how fall the decline would extend to and whether 0.6935 would be taken out. We’ll pay attention to the structure of the fall from 0.9324 and corresponding downside momentum to made an assessment later.