USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD’s rebound form 1.2951 resumed last week. The development now argues that corrective pattern from 1.3664 has completed as a triangle at 1.2951. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3036 support holds. Above 1.3171 will target 1.3327 resistance to confirm this bullish view. Nevertheless, break of 1.3036 will dampen this view and bring retest of 1.2951 low.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, structure of price actions from 1.3664 argues that it’s probably just a corrective move. Hence, while further fall is expected, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.2863.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) is in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.