EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY dropped to as low as 120.41 last week. The break of near term channel support suggests completion of corrective rise from 115.86, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 120.17 support. Decisive break there should confirm this case and target a retest on 115.86 low. On the upside, above 121.26 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 122.87 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still staying in the falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). Rise from 115.86 is seen as a corrective rise. Strong resistance could be seen at falling channel resistance to limit upside. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 127.50 key resistance next.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.65), this is the preferred case.