AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD?USD’s fall from 0.7031 extended to as low as 0.6817 last week. As noted before, corrective rebound from 0.6670 could have completed with three waves up to 0.7031. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.6754 support. Break will confirm this bearish case and target a retest of 0.6670 low. On the upside, above 0.6878 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6933 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7082 resistance intact, there is no clear confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, down trend from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still expect to continue to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, decisive break of 0.7082 will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7484).

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Next downside target is 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.